Forecast reports

You can download Excel reports from a saved forecast. This report provides the manager forecast, which includes any manual adjustments that have been made to the forecast.

The Summary worksheet in this report lists the total daily forecast for each driver. When available, the actual results for last year and the actual results for the forecast period are included in the report. The % Last Year rows list the difference, in percent between the daily forecast totals and the actual results for last year. The % Actual lists the difference between forecast and the actual results for the forecast period. Positive percentages indicate that the forecast is higher than the actual results. Negative percentages indicate that the forecast is lower than the actual results.

These columns in the Summary worksheet score the overall accuracy of the forecast for each driver against the actual results for the last year and the forecast period:

MPE: The mean percentage error (MPE) provides a measure of the bias in the forecast model. MPE is calculated by averaging the difference between the daily total forecast and the actual numbers, also known as the error. Positive MPE indicates a bias towards forecasting numbers that are lower than the actual results, and negative MPE indicates a bias towards forecasting higher numbers.
MAPE: The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) provides a method for representing the prediction accuracy of the forecast model. This accuracy is determined by taking the absolute error ratio for every day. The error ratios are then averaged and converted into a percentage.
MAPE differs from MPE because it is always a positive number representing the average error between forecast and actual results.
RMSPE: The root mean square percentage error (RMSPE) provides another method for representing prediction accuracy. The accuracy is taken as a square root of the average of the daily error ratios squared. When compared with MAPE, RMSPE generally provides a more equal weight between days that are forecast too low and intervals that are forecast too high.

Additional worksheets are included for each driver included in the forecast. These worksheets include a Daily Detail section that repeats the daily summary for the driver from the Summary worksheet. The Distributions section provides a detailed breakdown of forecast numbers and actual results for the driver across each interval.