Bottom Up - Growth Adjusted Trend Forecast Method

This forecast method creates bottom-up projections as part of the Budget Creation module. The method applies user-defined growth percentages to the actuals for the matching day last year (LY) for:

  • AHR
  • historical data for a specific driver

The method uses the following data:

Data Description
driver forecasts, which usually include sales forecasts Actuals, which can be based on any point-of-sale data daily data in the SO_RESULTS_SUMMARY table from LFSO.
AHR forecasts AHR historical weekly data in SO_RESULTS_SUMMARY table from LFSO.
staffing requirement hours LFSO workload generation data (staffing requirements, forecast, and driver distributions).
non-productive hours Estimated primarily from data in FCST_NONPROD_SMRY table, which originates in the Timesheet.
events LFSO event data for mandatory events.
budget values Optional. An imported reference budget stored in the FCST_ITEM table.

This forecast method uses the Growth Adjusted Trend algorithm to calculate the projected values. The algorithm:

  1. Multiplies actual AHR (Average Hourly Rate) for last year's matching day by a specified growth percentage to calculate AHR for a specific day.
  2. Multiplies driver actuals, including sales, for last year's matching day by a specified growth percentage to calculate a driver forecast for a specific day.
  3. Aggregates the calculated daily values into weekly values that are displayed on the Worksheet. Note that if any actual value is missing for last year, then the corresponding calculated value is zero (0).

See Growth Adjusted Trend Algorithm.

The method stores the projected daily values for drivers in the FCST_DRIVER table and aggregates them in the FCST_ITEM table. The method stores the projected values for AHR (Average Hourly Rate) in the FCST_ITEM table.