Growth Adjusted Trend Forecast Method

This forecast method creates top-down forecasts as part of the Budget Management module. This method applies user-defined growth percentages to the actuals for the matching day last year (LY) for:

  • AHR
  • sales actuals

This forecast method uses the following data:

Data Origin
sales actuals Point-of-sale data daily data in the SO_RESULTS_SUMMARY table from LFSO.
AHR forecasts AHR historical weekly data in SO_RESULTS_SUMMARY that is automatically averaged to weekly values.
budget values Optional. An imported reference budget stored in the FCST_ITEM table.

This forecast method uses the following input data:

  • AHR (Average Hourly Rate), to determine labor costs, from LFSO. This daily data is loaded from the SO_RESULTS_SUMMARY table.
  • sales actuals

This forecast method uses the Growth Adjusted Trend algorithm to calculate the forecasted values. The algorithm:

  1. Multiplies actual AHR (Average Hourly Rate) for last year’s matching day by a specified growth percentage to calculate AHR for a specific day.
  2. Multiplies actuals, including sales, for last year’s matching day by a specified growth percentage to calculate drivers, including sales, for a specific day.
  3. Aggregates the calculated daily values into weekly values that are displayed on the Worksheet. Note that if any actual value is missing for last year, then the corresponding calculated value is zero (0).

See Growth Adjusted Trend Algorithm.

The application stores the forecasted values in the FCST_ITEM table in the database.