Seasonal demand trending
The standard seasonal trending calculation reviews usage for a seasonal product for the previous year and then forward a specified number of months. In contrast, the seasonal trending demand calculation calculates usage for the past number of usage months one year before and then compare that to the immediate past number of usage months to derive a percentage. That percentage is considered the trend.
For example, current month is November. Last year in November, December and January, an average of 100 snow shovels were sold each month. Based on average usage last year, we could assume that this year our usage should be 100. When we review the usage for August, September, and October of last year, the average monthly usage was 10, and the same months in the current year show an average monthly usage of 15. If we compare these two three-month periods, we see that we are already selling shovels at a 50% increase over last year moving into the season. Therefore, the trend for this year is 150%. If we multiply our expected usage by the trend factor, we expect to sell 150 snow shovels per month and order accordingly.
Parameters
Parameters are set up in Product Replenishment Setup-Usage to activate the seasonal demand trending calculation, and to identify the minimum number of units sold this year and last year required to use the seasonal trending calculation. You can also set an expiration date to discontinue using the seasonal demand trending override at some point. An exception is created by the Product Administration Month End Processing Report when the trend percentage falls outside of the min/max percentages in Product Replenishment Setup-Usage or Product Warehouse Product Setup-Ordering, and an adjustment is made to usage.
Product level parameters
To use the seasonal trending demand calculations, select Yes in the Use Seasonal Trending field in Product Replenishment Setup-Usage. You must also select Trend % in the Usage Method field in Product Warehouse Product Setup-Ordering. The upper and lower limit trend percentages that are specified in Product Warehouse Product Setup-Ordering-Trending Demand are reviewed by the system. If these values are less than or greater than 100% respectively, and these limits and the numbers of units sold this year are greater than the value specified, the seasonal trending percentage is applied based on the product’s parameters.
If no upper seasonal percentage is entered at the product level, the parameters in Product Replenishment Setup-Usage are used, assuming the same upper and lower percents and units are met.
The usage months that are used in the calculation are obtained either from Product Warehouse Product Setup-Ordering (ICSW), or Product Replenishment Setup-Ranking-Detail Ranking (ICSR), based on the qualifying rank. This table shows which usage months value are used when the seasonal trend is calculated by the Product Administration Month End Processing Report.
| Field values | ICSW Usage Months | ICSR Usage Months |
|---|---|---|
| ICSW Frozen option is Yes | X | |
| ICSW Frozen option is Yes | X | |
| ICSW Frozen option is No and ICSR Company Ranking option is No | X | |
| ICSW Frozen option is No and ICSR Company Ranking option is Yes | X |