Probabilistic Standard Deviation
The probabilistic standard deviation is a back calculation based on the calculated Prediction Intervals (PIs) and can help in the analysis of uncertainty in the forecast.
As with Prediction Intervals the calculation of probabilistic standard deviation can differ based on the algorithm. It uses a direct calculation, where the PIs have been calculated analytically and an indirect calculation using bootstrapped PIs otherwise. Typically, for analytical Prediction Intervals, the probabilistic standard deviation is equal to the routine standard deviation for the first forecast period.
Probabilistic standard deviation is mapped to all standard forecast engine definitions in demand and inventory planning. Probabilistic SD is available in the Forecast Information panel, in Demand and Inventory Planning; where the statistical forecast is calculated by an engine with these outputs mapped.
Probabilistic SD can be selected as the standard deviation to use in Inventory Planning calculations (Simulation). The option to use Probabilistic SD in inventory is added to the Maintenance workbench: Configuration Standard Deviation.
- This feature is available in the forecast engine on upgrade. The related content is available after loading the demand (dpls.zip) template for this release.
- You are not required a new role or privilege access to use this feature. It is accessible to the users with roles that have access to the aforementioned forecast engines and worksheets.