Forecast Consumption without an Item Master Plan

If an item has no item master plan, the only available type of demand forecast is special demand.

You can enter special demand for an item or item/channel combination in the Special Demand by Item (cpdsp2100m000) session.

LN automatically applies forecast consumption during an order simulation. In the Item Order Plan (cprrp0520m000) session and the Special Demand by Item (cpdsp2100m000) session, you can also manually perform forecast consumption.

Forecast-consumption procedure

The dates of the forecast demand and the actual demand that consumes it do not have to match exactly. A particular instance of actual demand can also consume forecast demand from an earlier moment, or forecast demand from a later moment. This depends on the values of the following fields in the Scenarios (cprpd4100m000) session:

  • Backward Forecast Consumption
  • Forward Forecast Consumption
Example

Suppose that there is an instance of actual demand on date (and time) P. The starting moment for consumption (B) is P minus the value of the Backward Forecast Consumption field. The end moment for consumption (Y) is P plus the value of the Forward Forecast Consumption field.

The starting moment (B) is rounded to the start of the day (time 00:00:00). The end moment (Y) is rounded to the end of the day. If the Backward Forecast Consumption and the Forward Forecast Consumption field are zero days, LN consumes the special demand of a single day.

The consumption proceeds as follows:

  • The actual demand at moment P is used to consume the earliest occurrence of (nonconsumed) forecast on or after moment B.
  • If there is still actual demand left, this is used to consume the next forecast occurrence, and so on.
  • If necessary, the consumption process continues until moment Y is reached, and all forecast between B and Y has been fully consumed.

This consumption procedure takes place in two phases.

Phase 1

In this step, only customer demand that falls in a channel is considered. This demand is used to consume the special demand defined for a particular item/channel combination.

Phase 2

In this step, all remaining actual demand is considered:

  • Remaining channel-specific demand after all channel-specific forecast has been consumed.
  • Actual customer demand that does not fall in a channel.
  • Dependent demand (only if the Dependent Demand Forecast check box in the Items - Planning (cprpd1100m000) session is selected).

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