Forecast method: moving averageIf the Forecast Method field is Moving Average, LN determines the demand forecast as follows: The relevant parameters for this forecast method are the following fields in the Plan Items - Forecast Settings (cpdsp1110m000) session:
LN determines the mean deviation of the actual demand from the estimated demand for each forecast period. The mean deviation of the actual demand from the estimated demand is determined by past demand figures, the Forecast Method field, and the Moving Average Period field. If desired, the average demand is adjusted for the trend influence and seasonal influence, which were determined earlier. This is computed as follows: TD(t) = AV (withouttrend influence) TD(t) = CS + TF x t (linear trend influence) TD(t) = BS x TF ^(t-1) (progressive trend influence) ED(t) = TD(t) + SF(t) (constant seasonal influence) ED(t) = TD(t) x SF(t) (progressive seasonal influence) MA = SUM((AD(t) - ED(t)) / PR) Where:
(*) The average demand is the sum of the historical demand figures by period, divided by the number of periods with demand history. The forecast demand is computed as follows: FD(t) = ED(t) + MA Where:
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